Thursday, June 09, 2011
by Fitzpatrick Real Estate Group
Four Reasons the Outlook is Positive for the DC Area Real Estate Market
Despite the talk about a national “double dip” in the housing market, the outlook in the Washington, DC area is actually quite positive. While most people have heard the expression “Real Estate is local,” that sentiment has never been more true than now. Our area is unique in many ways, and it is that uniqueness that is allowing us to lead the way in the housing recovery.
1. Unemployment Is Low and New Job Creation Is High
According to the Labor Department, the DC area posted the lowest jobless rate of all large metropolitan areas in January, at 6.1%. In addition, our area enjoyed the fourth largest over-the-year increase in non-farm payroll employment, with 40,800 more jobs in January 2011 than in January 2010.[i] Aside from leading the nation in job growth, the DC area is more transient than many other metropolitan areas. The constant flow of people moving into and out of the area means that there is always demand for housing.
2. Home Prices Are on the Rise
The average sales price in the DC metro area for each quarter of 2010 was higher than its respective quarter in 2009. In fact, in the fourth quarter of 2010 prices rose 7.5% compared to the fourth quarter of 2009.[ii] While home prices dropped in most markets in January 2011 as compared with 2010, the DC area was one of only two markets that saw an increase. Prices in the DC metro area showed 3.6% in January 2011 as compared to January 2010. The only other market to see year-over-year growth in January was San Diego, which saw a modest .1% increase.[iii]
3. Inventory Has Decreased Over the Past Year
The number of new listings of single family homes in Montgomery County for the first quarter of 2011 was 13.8% lower than in the first quarter of 2010. In March 2011 – typically the kickoff month for the busy spring season – there were 18.6% fewer single family homes listed than in the same month in 2010.[iv] This all translates to a smaller pool of homes for a seemingly constant buyer pool. Because of the shortage in supply, it is not uncommon for well-priced homes in good condition to receive multiple offers shortly after being listed for sale. In fact, one of our March listings received six offers, several of which were above list price, within days of hitting the market.
4. Interest Rates Are Still Low, But…
While interest rates are still near historical lows, experts from all quarters are predicting that rates will begin to rise in the near future. The current low rates, coupled with the threat of future increases, seem to have created a sense of urgency among buyers that had been missing in the latter half of 2010. Those who have been waiting to see whether home prices will continue to drop are beginning to understand that continuing to wait may not pay off in the end. In fact, it would take a 5% drop in home prices to offset a 0.5% increase in interest rates.
So what does it all mean?
The bottom line is that the real estate market in the DC area is more stable than that of other parts of the country, so prospective buyers and sellers should not hesitate to make a move!
[i] Data from the Bureau of Labor Statistics
[ii] Statistics and chart from Metropolitan Regional Information Systems, Inc. (MRIS) data
[iii] As reported in the Washington Post, March 29, 2011
[iv] Data from MRIS, as presented by the Greater Capital Association of Realtors (GCAAR)